N.C. watches as states add lotteriesLeaders see money cross borders, wonder if it's time
But ever since a Democratic longshot used the lottery to win the Kentucky governor's seat a decade ago, the idea of a dollar and a dream has rippled across the South, helping Democrats win governor's races in Georgia, Alabama and South Carolina.
State residents already spend $100 million a year on Virginia's lottery, and South Carolina could have one within three years. If an S.C. lottery draws another $100 million across the state line, North Carolinians might clamor for one of their own.
N.C. legislators plan to introduce new lottery bills in January. Already, two-thirds of Carolinians say they want one.
And if legislative measures fail, political observers predict some savvy Democrat might use the lottery as a ticket to the N.C. governor's mansion in 2000.
``I think it's almost inevitable that a lottery is going to come to North Carolina,'' said Erskine Bowles, the former White House chief of staff who may run for governor.
But anyone who pushes for a lottery faces a tough fight. N.C. legislators have failed to pass lottery bills five times in the past decade, and any new bill would continue to face staunch opposition from both ends of the political spectrum: conservatives who disapprove of lotteries for moral reasons and liberals who say lotteries prey on the poor.
Still, lottery foes fear last month's S.C. governor's election -- in which Democrat Jim Hodges won after endorsing a lottery -- bolsters N.C. lottery momentum.
``It worries me that we are closer to having a lottery in North Carolina,'' said Chris Fitzsimon, the director of the liberal Common Sense Foundation in Raleigh and a leading lottery opponent. `` . . . If we need more money for public education, let's fund it some other way. Let's not mislead people into thinking they can get rich.''
A decade ago, political consultant James Carville, who's best known for advising President Clinton, realized that Democrats could tout the lottery as a tax-free way to improve education and ride it into office. Republicans supported by anti-gambling religious conservatives would be forced to oppose the popular issue.
After Carville used the lottery to get Wallace Wilkinson elected governor of Kentucky in 1987 and Zell Miller elected governor of Georgia three years later, Democrats across the South started noticing. Miller earmarked lottery money for HOPE scholarships, which have sent 330,000 students to Georgia colleges. Eight years later, Miller is retiring as governor with an 80 percent approval rating.
Seeing Miller's success, Democrats in South Carolina and Alabama modeled their campaigns for governor after his and produced remarkable upsets this year, ousting sitting Republican governors in conservative states.
Legislators in Alabama and South Carolina are expected to pass bills next year calling for referendums on lotteries. Even S.C. House Speaker David Wilkins, R-Greenville, who opposes lotteries, acknowledges the election is widely seen as a mandate for one.
The soonest South Carolinians could vote on the issue would be November 2000. If the lottery were to pass, as polls indicate it would, the state could start selling tickets in early 2001.
``Seeing as we're so close, it would be somebody's lunch hour to go get tickets,'' said Martha Rand, a 31-year-old homemaker who lives in south Charlotte. ``It's obviously a great temptation, to spend a few dollars for the chance to win millions.''
South Carolinians hope that's exactly what happens. Hodges' staff estimates North Carolinians would spend $100 million a year on an S.C. lottery.
``We don't want North Carolina to have a lottery,'' said Kevin Geddings, Hodges' chief of staff. ``Heck no. We want North Carolinians to come to South Carolina and pay for our schools.''
But that's just what worries N.C. lottery supporters.
``Since Virginia has a lottery to the north, if South Carolina has one to the south, the amount of money that would be flowing out of our state to those states would be astronomical,'' said N.C. Rep. David Redwine, D-Brunswick. ``It would add tremendous pressure to our state to have a lottery.''
The pressure could mount further if Tennessee, the only other state bordering North Carolina without a lottery, were to adopt one. After the Alabama and South Carolina upsets last month, Democratic legislators in Tennessee said they'll make passing a bill for a lottery referendum their top priority in January.
And even lottery companies are gearing up more than usual for a legislative push, said Raleigh lobbyist Roger Bone, who's represented the companies in the past. The companies are eyeing North Carolina because it's the largest of the 15 states without a lottery.
The N.C. Senate passed lottery referendum bills in 1989, 1991 and 1993, but they died in the House. In 1995 and 1997, lottery bills failed to even get out of the Senate.
Lottery opponents vow to continue fighting any new bills. But even they acknowledge several factors could bolster a lottery proposal's chances in coming years.
For one, Democrats regained control of the N.C. House last month. Speaker Harold Brubaker, R-Randolph, who has blocked lottery bills, will likely be replaced by Mecklenburg Democrat Jim Black. While Black personally opposes lotteries, he said he'd likely let the House debate the issue.
But perhaps the most important factor in the lottery debate is money. Thanks to a booming economy, the state has been blessed with budget surpluses in recent years, and there's been little need for the extra revenue a lottery would provide.
That, however, may change. Lottery supporters and opponents say a lottery could become more enticing as fiscal resources tighten in the coming years.
David Crotts, the legislature's senior economist, predicts a budget crunch for the next three years because of tax cuts, funding commitments and slower economic growth due to the Asian financial crisis. The state has committed millions of dollars to cut food and inheritance taxes, raise teacher pay, grant tax refunds to state retirees, and pay off bond debt.
As of now Crotts projects the state's 1999-2000 expenses at $150 million more than revenues. ``We're looking at tough decisions,'' he said.
If Hunt or legislators want to propose new programs in the next few years, it's going to be tough to pay for them, Crotts said. A lottery that could bring in an estimated $300 million a year in profits could be one way to finance new ideas without raising taxes.
``There's a buzz around town that all these factors will combine to push the lottery to the forefront of the legislative agenda,'' said lottery opponent Fitzsimon. ``I think lottery opponents are aware of that and prepared to fight it.''
Rep. Connie Wilson, R-Mecklenburg, believes a state lottery will be unnecessary because she expects state revenues to remain healthy.
``One of the arguments for a lottery is that we can spend more money on education,'' Wilson said. ``Well, we've been able to do that anyway.''
If the legislature fails to pass a lottery referendum in 1999 or 2000, political observers say the lottery will likely become an issue in the 2000 governor's race.
``You would have to be pretty blind not to see the message that this year's elections sent,'' said University of Georgia political scientist Charles Bullock. ``Whoever runs to succeed Jim Hunt is going to see what happened in four Southern states: when Democrats come up with lottery plans, Democrats win.''
Two potential candidates for the Democratic nomination in 2000 -- Bowles and Lt. Gov. Dennis Wicker -- say they would favor a lottery as long as the profits are used for education.
``I think anyone running for governor of North Carolina in 2000 would have to give the lottery serious consideration after what happened in Alabama and South Carolina,'' Wicker said. ``We have to face the reality that the lottery is an issue that should be put on the table and debated.''
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Odds once seemed long against a lottery ever coming to the conservative South.